Things to look forward to

Live longer, die slower

AS any amateur futurologist can tell you, the rich world is rapidly getting older. By 2050 more than a quarter of the developed world’s population will be over 65. At the moment, that group makes up about a sixth of the rich-world population, and only about 25% of them are over 80. In 2050 the octogenarians and their elders will comprise 40% of the 65-plus cohort in wealthy countries.

This greying of the prosperous parts of the world has long been foreseen, if not very well prepared for. Much less well known is the fact that well-off countries are far from alone in facing the prospect of an ageing population. Babies born today in poorish countries such as Thailand or Jamaica can reasonably expect to live into their 70s. And as more and more Indians and Chinese escape from poverty, they too will have much longer spans (see chart).

By 2050 the percentage of the Indian population over 80 will have risen fivefold, and the same segment in China will have gone up six times. Such changes happen for two reasons: people’s general health is better, meaning they wear out later, and preventable deaths of the relatively young are, in fact, prevented. As anti-retroviral treatment for HIV/AIDS becomes more common, childbirth safer and malaria more treatable, people will die at a more advanced age. By 2050 close to 80% of all deaths in the world are expected to occur in people who are older than 60.

While people of 59 or under die in any number of dramatic ways, people on the other side of 60 face three possibilities which between them carry off most of the elderly, whatever their economic circumstances. Each peaks in a different decade, and each produces a different sort of end of life.

The first is cancer: most victims function reasonably well before entering a steep decline. Cancer deaths peak at 65-plus, and more and more sufferers recover. If they do, two other clouds appear on the horizon. One of these is chronic organ failure and the other is frailty, dementia and decline. Chronic problems with an organ—usually heart disease or emphysema—bring a gradual decline punctuated by severe episodes, such as a heart attack or lung failure.

Dementia or frailty can mean a long, poor-quality end of life. As more cures are found for cancer, and sensible types give up smoking and bacon, more people will find that a slow decline is the meagre reward for their virtuous behaviour. That applies to developing countries as well as rich ones. There has never been a bigger need for cheap, effective treatment for diseases of the old, such as Alzheimer’s (see article) or for easier access to pain relief and reliable care.

The Economist
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This article has made me afraid of getting old, but dieing young doesn't sound all that appealing either. Dieing doesn't sound that appealing in general, probably because I'm young and healthy. Still, everyone deserves a dignified death, and slowly losing all control over your actions and bodily functions is not altogether very dignified. To remedy this, very old or very ill people who choose to do so should have the right to a relatively painless suicide. Everyone has the right to die as well as the right to live, and this should be a right under the law as well.